The movie industry faced a challenging year in 2022, with the domestic box office takings being the lowest since 1998. Although COVID-related lockdowns may have played a role, the quality of the movies, the increasing emphasis on preachy themes, and the convenience of streaming services have also contributed to this downturn. Nevertheless, it remains to be seen whether Hollywood can successfully navigate these challenges and regain its former glory.
It is important to note that a movie’s budget is just one part of the equation when determining its profitability. Other factors such as distribution costs, marketing, and promotional expenses also need to be factored in. Typically, the budget is doubled, and any profit is derived from the worldwide box office takings minus these costs.
In this article, we analyze the box office numbers and predict which movies will be the top performers and which will fail in 2023. Our predictions are based on worldwide box office data. We welcome any differing opinions or feedback in the comments section below.
Ant Man and the Wasp: Quantumania
The highly anticipated Phase Five of Marvel’s cinematic universe has begun with the release of the third Ant Man movie, which includes the entire family and features a captivating performance by Jonathan Majors as Kang The Conqueror. Despite the movie earning a respectable $104 million in domestic box office revenue over its opening weekend, this is notably less than both Wakanda Forever and Thor: Love and Thunder.
Traditionally, Marvel movies experience a drop of around 60-70% between their first and second weekends, making it possible that Ant Man’s third installment will have a slower, more gradual rise at the global box office. While the movie is likely to make money, it may not generate the same level of excitement as some of Marvel’s more recent projects.
Creed III
Michael B. Jordan has taken over the reins of the Rocky franchise, and the third installment in this trilogy is poised to deliver another satisfying boxing movie experience. Despite its potential, it is unlikely to break any box office records when compared to its predecessors.
In 2015, Creed debuted with a domestic opening of approximately $30 million and ultimately grossed $173 million globally. The sequel, Creed II, performed better at the box office, largely due to the intriguing storyline involving the son of Ivan Drago stepping into the ring, and amassed a total of $214 million in ticket sales.
Scream VI
When it comes to unexpected successes, Scream V (also known as ‘Scream’) definitely fits the bill. Despite initial doubts, the film surpassed all expectations at the box office, bringing in an impressive $140 million on a relatively modest budget of $25 million. Given this franchise’s track record, it’s safe to assume that Scream VI will likely achieve similar success. However, it’s important to note that while the Scream series has established itself as a dependable horror franchise, it may not necessarily break new ground in terms of revenue or cultural impact.
Shazam: Fury of the Gods
James Gunn is set to reboot the DC Universe, making any upcoming releases from the studio (excluding The Flash) irrelevant. This inundation of superhero films could result in audience indifference, potentially leading to some films failing to gain traction. Black Adam’s poor performance at the box office suggests that this trend may continue, with the film failing to recoup its $100 million budget. As is customary, marketing, promotion, and distribution costs should also be factored in, doubling the overall expenditure.
John Wick: Chapter 4
John Wick is a highly elusive character to track down. Each installment in the franchise has surpassed its predecessor in terms of box office performance, with Chapter 3 raking in an impressive $328 million while having only a $75 million budget. This exceptional return on investment makes it a valuable addition to Lionsgate’s portfolio. Additionally, with Chapter 4 scheduled to be the longest film in the series and starring the beloved Keanu Reeves, it has the potential to be a major success for the studio.
