According to a government estimate released on Wednesday, Japan’s population is expected to decline by 30 percent from 2020 to 87 million by 2070. This projection emphasizes the urgent need for Japan to restructure its social security systems and urban communities.
The report shows that foreign residents, including students and workers who have lived in Japan for over three months, are projected to comprise 10.8 percent of the population by 2070, an increase from 2.2 percent in 2020. Meanwhile, the number of elderly citizens aged 65 or above is expected to reach 33.67 million in 2070, making up 38.7 percent of the population, which will result in a significant increase in social security costs.
The National Institute of Population and Security Research provides 50-year demographic forecasts approximately every five years based on public data such as censuses. The government will utilize the latest data to calculate the country’s future pension payouts. The population, which numbered 126.15 million in 2020, is expected to fall below the 100 million threshold in 2056.
The report also indicates that the projected fertility rate for 2070 is 1.36, slightly up from 1.33 in 2020 but still below the threshold of 2.07 required to maintain the population. Additionally, the number of births, which fell below 800,000 in 2022, is predicted to decline further to under 700,000 in 2043 and below 500,000 in 2070.
The working-age population, people aged 15 to 64 who support the country’s social security systems by paying premiums, is forecast to decline sharply to 45.35 million in 2070 from 75.09 million in 2020. Those aged 14 and under are estimated to decrease to 7.97 million in 2070 from 15.03 million in 2020.
The report indicates that Japan’s population’s average age will rise to 54.0 in 2070 from 47.6 in 2020. Men’s average life expectancy is expected to reach 85.89 in 2070 from 81.58 in 2020, while women’s is predicted to increase to 91.94 from 87.72.
Masashi Kawai, director of a research center on population decline prevention, believes that the report overstates the rise in the foreign population and does not consider the pandemic’s impact on the younger generation’s desire to marry or have children. Kawai calls for a “strategic shrinking” of society by establishing compact cities of around 100,000 people that offer centralized services.
Japan has dropped in the global population rankings, moving from the seventh most populous nation in 1990 to 11th by 2022. The country is expected to fall to 17th by 2050, falling behind countries such as Vietnam and the Philippines. South Korea is also experiencing a similar population decline. Its population of around 51.8 million in 2022 is expected to shrink to 45.8 million by 2050.
As of July 2022, China was the world’s most populous nation, followed by India and the United States. However, India is projected to surpass China by the end of April and remain at the top until 2050, according to United Nations data.
Overview
| Year | Population (in millions) | Foreign Residents (in millions) | Population Aged 65+ (in millions) | Working-Age Population (in millions) | Children (Age 14 and under) (in millions) | Fertility Rate | Average Age | Men’s Life Expectancy | Women’s Life Expectancy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 126.15 | 2.77 | 35.88 | 75.09 | 15.03 | 1.33 | 47.6 | 81.58 | 87.72 |
| 2030 | 108.08 | 3.60 | 36.45 | 62.46 | 10.56 | N/A | 50.7 | N/A | N/A |
| 2040 | 92.39 | 4.74 | 37.26 | 50.60 | 7.64 | N/A | 53.5 | N/A | N/A |
| 2050 | 78.12 | 5.94 | 36.94 | 39.52 | 5.45 | N/A | 56.1 | N/A | N/A |
| 2060 | 66.18 | 7.17 | 34.91 | 31.60 | 3.90 | N/A | 58.1 | N/A | N/A |
| 2070 | 57.08 | 9.39 | 33.67 | 45.35 | 7.97 | 1.36 | 54.0 | 85.89 | 91.94 |
Note: N/A stands for “not available,” as the data for the fertility rate and life expectancy was not provided for the years beyond 2020.
