The global technology intelligence firm, ABI Research, has released a new whitepaper titled “74 Technology Trends That Will—and Will Not—Shape 2023”. The paper identifies 41 technology trends that are likely to shape the technology market in the year ahead, while another 33 trends that have been heavily speculated but are less likely to have a significant impact over the next 12 months.
The paper clarifies that several anticipated technological advancements, including the industrial metaverse, 5G wearables, printed electronics, and satellite-to-cell services, will not happen in 2023. The research firm argues that the ongoing effects of the global pandemic, inflation, political instability, and other factors are creating a sense of uncertainty and squeezing many markets. Technology can either be a hindrance or a facilitator in this environment.
The Chief Research Officer at ABI Research, Stuart Carlaw, notes that the success of technology investment and implementation depends on the specifics of how, who, what, and when. The whitepaper aims to provide a blueprint for building realistic expectations of key technology markets and verticals.
The Industrial Metaverse
In the year 2023, it is unlikely that Industrial and Manufacturing (I&M) companies will make significant investments in the metaverse. This is because the economic climate does not favor investments that lack a clear pathway to value, and virtual worlds fall under this category. Instead, I&M firms will focus their investments on tools that enable the creation of a digital thread. The digital thread will provide feedback loops between designers, engineers, and manufacturing teams, allowing for more efficient and effective collaboration. By investing in these tools, I&M firms will be able to optimize their operations and improve their production processes.
Furthermore, I&M firms will continue to invest in digital twins, which are virtual replicas of machines, production lines, and facilities. These digital twins provide valuable insights into the performance of these systems and can be used to optimize their operations. By leveraging digital twins, I&M firms can identify areas for improvement and implement changes that increase efficiency and productivity.
5G in Consumer Wearables
The use of cellular connectivity can bring significant advantages to wearable devices, freeing them from the need to be connected to a smartphone. However, despite the potential benefits of 5G connectivity for wearables, it is unlikely that we will see 5G-enabled wearables in 2023.
Nevertheless, there is still hope for the wearables market as 5G technology continues to evolve gradually. The 3rd Generation Partnership Project (3GPP) is currently working on the development of Reduced Capability (RedCap) New Radio (NR) under Release 17, Release 18, and beyond.
RedCap technology is designed to address the needs of devices that have cost and energy constraints, such as wearables. The aim is to create products that are less complex, cheaper, have a good battery life, and require less bandwidth than current 5G NR products. By doing so, RedCap can help to meet the needs of wearables and other similar devices, without the need for full 5G connectivity. This means that even if 5G wearables are not yet feasible, RedCap-enabled wearables could still be a possibility, bringing the benefits of cellular connectivity to a wider range of devices.
Private 5G
The current state of 5G technology shows that critical enterprise features such as Ultra-Reliable Low Latency Communications (URLLC) and time-sensitive networking are only starting to emerge in commercially available chipsets by the end of 2023. This implies that industrial-grade devices capable of utilizing the capabilities of Release 16 will only become widely available by the first quarter of 2024.
Unfortunately, this delay means that 4G LTE will continue to be the dominant cellular connectivity technology until at least 2027. According to ABI Research, this is when the point of infliction for 5G connectivity is predicted to contribute more to enterprise revenue.
Therefore, it is important to note that despite the promises of 5G technology, its full potential will not be realized until the critical enterprise features are widely available in the market. Until then, the current dominant technology, 4G LTE, will remain the go-to choice for most businesses.
Printed Electronics
The Internet of Things (IoT) is a rapidly growing area of technology, and one of the most promising areas of expansion is in the field of printed electronics. Numerous companies are actively engaged in developing technology and prototypes for printed IoT devices, and some initial partnerships have already been formed between OEMs/ODMs and printing companies.
To fully realize the potential of printed IoT, traditional printing companies must expand their vision beyond their current offerings and adapt their approach to customer engagement at the production line and facility level. For example, vendors who specialize in selling near field communication or radio frequency identification label/tag printers or tags will need to modify their strategies in order to capitalize on this emerging market.
While the printed IoT market is still in its early stages, 2022 has given us a glimpse of the transformative potential of these new printing technologies. Although we cannot expect a complete overhaul of the industry in 2023, the groundwork has already been laid for significant growth in the coming years. As we move forward, we can expect continued innovation and new developments that will expand the capabilities and applications of printed IoT devices.
Printed Electronics
The market for satellite-to-cell services is rapidly gaining traction, with prominent players such as Apple, Huawei, SpaceX, Globalstar, AST Space Mobile, and Lynk accelerating the launch of their respective services. Although currently limited to specialized applications, these services show significant potential for growth in the coming years. It is expected that the years 2023 and 2024 will be crucial in generating consumer interest and driving adoption.
According to ABI Research, the non-terrestrial network-mobile service segment, which encompasses satellite-to-cell services, is expected to witness a substantial expansion. By 2027, this segment is projected to reach 6.8 million connections, indicating a massive surge in demand for non-terrestrial network connectivity. As satellite-to-cell services continue to evolve, the potential for expanding their reach and capabilities is significant, and this segment is expected to play a pivotal role in shaping the future of mobile communication technology.
