Deloitte’s team of analysts have recently made predictions about the most significant technology trends that they believe will shape the upcoming year. They have considered the evolving industry landscape while framing the core trends such as machine learning, cloud computing, and blockchain, with the aim of highlighting their practical applications rather than mere abstract concepts. I had the opportunity to discuss these trends with Mike Bechtel, the chief futurist at Deloitte, to gain further insights into their potential impact on our lives in the coming years, starting from 2023.
The Metaverse
Deloitte’s report suggests that the metaverse will have a significant impact on our lives, particularly in terms of its potential to create new business models. The report focuses on the concept of “Immersive internet for the enterprise” and argues that the metaverse will enable simpler ways of interacting with machines. The evolution of technology has moved from punch cards to desktop icon-driven interfaces and mobile touchscreens, leading us to the current era of immersive virtual worlds and experiences. Bechtel, an industry expert, likens the metaverse to a new chapter of the internet, or an “immersive internet.”
As with earlier iterations of the internet, Deloitte argues that there will be three groups of people who get involved in the metaverse: promoters, plussers, and pioneers. Promoters will use the metaverse as a digital business card to advertise their services. Plussers will use the technology to enhance their existing services by adding new ways for customers to engage with them. Finally, pioneers will use the metaverse to create entirely new business models and products, similar to the “hyperscalers” of the internet age who have become giants in their respective industries.
Artificial Intelligence
Deloitte has identified a significant trend in the field of artificial intelligence (AI) for the year 2023: the need for trust. In particular, organizations will need to learn to trust their robotic colleagues as machines move beyond traditional “number crunching” tasks into the realm of cognitive decision-making. Deloitte predicts that the success or failure of businesses will depend on their willingness to embrace the use of smart, self-teaching machines and algorithms.
However, for organizations to fully trust AI, it will be crucial for the technology to become transparent and explainable. Currently, there is a “black box” problem with AI, where we do not fully understand how it arrives at its decisions. As algorithms take on more complex tasks such as object detection, speech recognition, and image and text generation, it will become increasingly important for human colleagues to understand and agree with the decisions made by AI.
Overcoming the “black box” problem is likely to be a critical step in developing AI that can be trusted as a colleague. As Deloitte suggests, the success of AI applications may depend on how much their human colleagues understand and agree with their decisions. Thus, achieving transparency and explainability in AI will be essential for building trust in this technology.
Cloud Computing
n 2023, many organizations will be focused on managing the complex cloud ecosystem, commonly referred to as “taming cloud chaos.” Enterprises are increasingly adopting public, private, hybrid, and multi-cloud solutions, resulting in a mix of tools and platforms. According to Deloitte, approximately 85 percent of businesses are using two or more cloud platforms, with 25 percent using as many as five. While this mix of solutions can offer flexibility and options, it can also lead to businesses failing to fully leverage the benefits of each platform, as well as unnecessary expenses.
To address this challenge, organizations need a “layer of abstraction and automation” that can provide an overview of the cloud ecosystem through unified dashboards and control panels. This solution, often referred to as “supercloud” or “sky computing,” can simplify the complexity of managing multiple cloud platforms. Deloitte’s report suggests that this solution should be delivered in line with a paradigm that emphasizes “simplicity as a service.”
An analogy can be drawn to the early days of streaming, where the value proposition was to lower bills and provide a simple interface. However, as the number of streaming services increased, so did the complexity and cost. Similarly, as enterprises adopt multiple cloud platforms, the complexity and cost of managing them can increase. The solution is to simplify the cloud ecosystem through automation and abstraction, providing a clear overview of the cloud environment, and delivering simplicity as a service.
The Skills Gap
The shortage of skilled workers in the STEM industries is a challenge faced by businesses of all kinds. However, this problem is particularly acute for companies that rely on these specialized skills. To address this issue, Deloitte’s report proposes that successful organizations will prioritize “flexibility” as their most valuable attribute.
Rather than spending large amounts of money on scarce external talent, companies should focus on developing and nurturing the talent they already have in-house. The report argues that the resources needed for innovation and business success may not necessarily be found in external hires with decades of experience and prestigious qualifications. Instead, the report advises companies to adopt a “create, not compete” approach to talent development, which makes a lot of sense.
But what if our investments in retraining and upskilling our employees result in them being poached by competitors? Far from being a concern, this should be seen as a positive development. It shows that we are investing in our employees in the right way. To retain our top talent, we need to ensure that the work they are doing is challenging and rewarding enough to make them want to stay with us.
Decentralized Systems
Blockchain technology, which is the decentralized and encrypted database platform underlying cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, has been stigmatized due to its association with illicit activities on the dark web. However, despite this image problem, many enterprise organizations around the world are investing heavily in this technology, aiming to eliminate the need for trust in digital transactions involving multiple entities. While blockchain’s initial use cases were successful, the subsequent period saw a tech-led rather than needs-driven approach, with many companies utilizing blockchain merely because it was available, regardless of whether it was the best solution for their particular needs.
Moving into 2023, the trend in the use of blockchain is shifting towards a focus on real-world issues and implementing solutions for those issues. Companies are beginning to prioritize the problem at hand before seeking out a solution, with the understanding that blockchain may be the answer. For instance, governments may use blockchain to record proof of COVID-19 vaccinations, while cocoa producers may use it to eliminate child labor from the supply chain. Additionally, jewelers may use blockchain to prove that their diamonds are ethically sourced and not conflict diamonds, while also competing with manufacturers of synthetic diamonds. The focus is on using blockchain as a tool to solve specific problems, rather than as a one-size-fits-all solution.
In 2023, as we embrace the advancements in cloud and mobile computing, it may come as a surprise to see the term “mainframe” included in the latest technology trends list. This signifies a potential resurgence in interest for mainframes, despite their association with traditional computing methods.
